Security-Widefield, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

324
FXUS65 KPUB 191112
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
512 AM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected for portions of the
  region this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.

- Very little variability in the day to day wx during the long term
  period.

- Heat concerns will likely be increasing by NEXT weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025


Today: The start of the weekend will bring about a rather typical
Summer day for the region, with warm temperatures and afternoon
showers and storms. Southwesterly to westerly flow will be in place
over south central and southeastern Colorado in response to a high
pressure to the southeast of the area. This flow pattern will allow
for persistent orographic forcing to be in place. In addition, vort
maxes drifting within the flow may bring brief periods of increased
broader forcing and support. Along with all of that, moisture will
be streaming along the western periphery of the high pressure, and
northward over the region. With the forcing and moisture in place,
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop during the day.
Showers and storms are anticipated to blossom initially along the
higher terrain by mid afternoon, and push across the valleys and
plains by late afternoon. Coverage of storms is expected to be a tad
higher than the past couple of days given the heightened support
from the passing vort max. A strong storm or two will also be
possible, with strong outflow winds up to around 50 mph the primary
hazard, though small hail and brief periods of heavy rain will also
be possible with any stronger storms. Beyond all of that, mostly
clear skies early will become mostly cloudy by late afternoon as
showers and storms develop, with winds remaining relatively light
around 10 mph. Looking at temperatures, a warm and near seasonal day
is anticipated, with the plains rising into the upper 80s to mid
90s, the valleys into the upper 70s to 80s, and the mountains into
the mid 50s to low 70s.

Tonight: Heading into Saturday night, active weather is anticipated
early, with quiet conditions then prevailing overnight for south
central and southeastern Colorado. Synoptically the pattern is
expected to remain the same, with moist southwesterly to westerly
flow streaming over the area in response to a high pressure to the
southeast. While orographic forcing and moisture advection will
continue, diurnal instability will start to wane heading into this
period. With that all said, showers and storms are expected to be
ongoing during the evening hours, with greatest coverage across the
plains at this point. As instability lessens through the evening
though, showers and storms are anticipated to start dissipating,
with dry conditions prevailing during the overnight hours.
Otherwise, winds will remain light around 5 mph, and cloud will
steadily lessen through the evening, with mostly clear skies
returning Sunday morning. Temperatures Saturday night will be mild
and around seasonal values, with the plains cooling into the upper
50s to 60s, the valleys into the 40s to low 50s, and the mountains
into the mid 30s to 40s.

Tomorrow: For the end of the weekend, active weather continues for
portions of south central and southeastern Colorado. With the high
pressure still to the southeast, moist southwesterly to westerly
flow will continue to stream over the region. With orographics and
moisture advection persisting, another round of afternoon showers
and storms is anticipated. Showers and storms will first develop
along the mountains by mid afternoon, and then start to drift across
the valleys and plains by late afternoon. Gusty outflow winds, small
hail, and periods of heavy rain will be possible with any more
organized storms. Outside of all of that, like previous days, mostly
clear skies early will become mostly cloudy by late afternoon, with
winds remaining relatively light around 10 mph. As for temperatures,
warm and near seasonal values continue for south central and
southeastern Colorado.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Not much change in the long range forecast as very little
variability in the moisture and warmth are shown in the statistical
data through most of this period. Monsoonal flow appears to continue
next week as mid level RH charts show moisture channel continuing
from Old Mexico....into NM...and then into CO. THis will keep a good
chance of afternoon storms over the mtns with more isolated activity
over the plains. Some days appear a bit better than others
(especially Tuesday) for precip, but overall the monsoon moisture
pattern appears to be continuing.

The main weather concern is at the very end of this long term fcst
period. The moisture tap appears to get pinched off by next weekend,
and the mid level RH charts show the atmosphere getting quite a bit
drier, and this is likely going to lead to hotter temperatures over
the entire region, and I would not be too surprised that it will get
quite hot next weekend over the forecast area. Current fcst
grids show upper 90s for next Saturday, but I would not be too
surprised if these fcst max temp values get into the 100s as the
week progresses. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 508 AM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

VFR conditions are likely during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. The only exception will be during
this afternoon where brief periods of MVFR cant be ruled out as
TSRA activity moves across the taf sites late this afternoon and
early evening.Gusty outflow winds will be possible along with
brief periods of heavy rain. Winds today will be diurnally
driven.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH